Why polls spell trouble for Warren despite large lead

The most recent poll comparing Senator Elizabeth Warren to her Republican challengers in the Massachusetts Senate race may show Warren with a large lead, but that doesn’t mean she should be without concern in the election. WBUR, a liberal radio station in Boston put out a poll in March, a full month before the Republican state convention in Massachusetts comparing Warren’s favorability to that of her Republican counterparts.

That WBUR poll showed Warren had a 53% favorability with a 36% unfavorable rating. Meanwhile, Republican State Representative Geoff Diehl has only a 9% favorability rating with a 3% unfavorable rating. But don’t let the 44% difference in favorability fool you, as 87% of voters have either never heard of Geoff Diehl or do not have a strong opinion on him. Those numbers are likely to change now that Diehl has won the official endorsement of the MassGOP along with 5 different state representatives from 4 different counties across the state so far. Diehl has also earned the endorsement of Bristol County Sheriff Tom Hodgson, along with the Norfolk Sheriff’s Office County Correctional Association.

The endorsements Diehl has received in recent months are not the only sign his numbers are better than the polls from early spring suggest. Diehl has been travelling around the Commonwealth in an RV he appropriately dubbed Diehl on Wheels, in order to get his name out and gain support across the state. This campaign strategy could prove to be far more effective than any impassioned speech that Warren delivers, as Diehl proves he is a better candidate for the people than Warren who spends over 80% of her time away from the state that elected her.

Possibly the biggest sign that Warren ought to be concerned about her re-election bid is that 75% of voters who have heard about Geoff Diehl have a favorable opinion of him. That number is 15.5% better than Warren’s rating when averaging the numbers out of 100%. Should Diehl earn the support of just 50% of voters who are not familiar with him, which is 25% lower than his average favorability rating, he would have the same favorability rating as Warren and could cause one of the biggest political upsets in history. All these polls show is that Geoff Diehl’s biggest challenger isn’t Elizabeth Warren, it is simply people not knowing his name.

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